Michael D. Moberly    February 27, 2014   ‘A blog where attention span really matters’.

As most readers of this blog recognize, generally through their personal – professional experiences, assessment and management of (company) risk has indeed become increasingly more complex and multi-faceted, particularly as we endeavor to guide our company’s and/or clients through the respective operational, audit, compliance, and budgeting obstacle course.

Throughout this so-called obstacle course, it is likely we will become inclined, at some point, to justify most, if not all of the factors used to assign a reasonably correct ‘risk rating’ to the various business units within our company or that of our clients.

But, and probably rightfully so, more company decision makers are requiring quantitative (data) driven findings to support a particular risk rating. So, no longer can security – risk management practitioners find comfort by focusing their attention almost exclusively the rather archaic latest zero-day risk materialization or exploitation events. To be sure, that landscape has changed so significantly that we must assume greater responsibilities.

So, in the security, asset protection, and risk-threat assessment and management arena, presenting a risk-threat rating that is simply or solely based on numbers may not result in the best (risk, threat) analysis that we are seeking. Thus, one path that gets us closer to arriving at a more accurate understanding of the actual risk-threat level necessary for business strategic planning and decision making, it’s necessary to introduce and factor multiple elements in the risk-threat analysis equation.

Thus, as we more routinely adopt a more inclusive and/or multi-dimensional view toward assessing risks and threats, additional complexity will likely be one outcome, e.g., quantitative and qualitative forms of measurement.

Quantitative risk-threat assessment…
Quantitative risk assessment surfaces as we develop the ability to assign a (specific) dollar amount/value to a specific risk or threat should it materialize. As an example, let’s apply quantitative risk assessment to a healthcare institution.

For simplicity, there are 1,000 confidential patient records and data that reside in a single database. This particular database is directly accessible by a web server which resides in a semi-trusted environment.  That of course, constitutes a vulnerability (risk) in itself, and any compromise of the method in which the web server communicates with the database would likely result in the exposure (comprise) of all 1,000 patient records holding confidential data as conveyed by HIPPA (Health Insurance Protection and Portability Act).

Too, for discussion sake, and to add further complexity, during a recent ‘business impact analysis’ or BIA, it was found that the replacement cost for each compromised patient record would be $30. This cost includes (a.) contacting each patient to inform them of the compromise, (b.) changing each patients account numbers, and (c.) printing new health cards.

From this, one can easily determine that the maximum quantitative loss associated with a full compromise of that system is conservatively estimated at $30,000, excluding of course, the inevitable litigation. No doubt, as readers already surmise, there is more to consider. But does quantitative risk always have to ‘map out’ the money (loss or cost) aspects associated with materialized risks-threats?, probably not, because in many instances controls are automated with internally consistent and repeatable numbers being generated that can be used to create an alert dashboard or report directed to business unit managers when breaches or other adverse events occur.

Qualitative risk-threat assessment

Qualitative risk-threat assessment, on the other hand takes a different form. To demonstrate qualitative risk-threat assessment it is important to introduce additional factors, i.e., threat-risk vectors into the above example.

The first is, we learn that the patient database that previously held 1,000 records will now hold 10,000 records, possibly rising to 500,000 patient records. We also learn that (a.) multiple groups and/or business units within the healthcare institution will have access, and (b.) the capability to modify patient records, and (c.) the database/system will now come under the control of a different unit, i.e., the company’s Operations Group.

Obviously, substantive changes like this elevate – bring additional complexity to the risk-threat assessment we are endeavoring to calculate.  Too add yet another layer of complexity to our risk-threat analysis, we are informed by the audit unit that the data in the database is (d.) neither encrypted in transit to the web server or at rest on the database. The coup de grace follows with the audit unit giving exactly ninety days to document and remediate these adverse set of circumstances, i.e., risks, threats, vulnerabilities, because, as it stands, this healthcare institutions IT system is not in compliance with HIPAA.  Collectively, the additional factors serve to expand the risk-threat equation.

Now that these vulnerabilities (risks, threats) are known to exist relative to the institutions’ IT system, the next steps involve determining (a.) linking costs to any actual compromise, i.e., the materialization of a risk-threat or vulnerability being exploited, and also (b.) the probability that a specific or possible multiple vulnerabilities that have been identified will be discovered and adversely exploited by bad actors, or (c.) a single vulnerability materializing and cascading throughout the IT system.

Assessment process…

The assessment process commences by examining the cost(s) associated with potential compromises, as (a.) single acts, (b.) as multiple acts occurring simultaneously, and (c.) the potential for adverse cascading effects throughout the institution, well beyond perhaps the IT system itself.

Because we now know there may be in excess of 500,000 confidential patient records stored on the database, it’s often prudent to consider – factor absolute worst-case scenarios, i.e.,

500,000 records X $30 remediation cost per record = $15 million.

In most any company’s perspective, the possibility of $15 million dollars being ‘at risk’ is significant. One problem associated with relying solely on this formula is that it is largely one-dimensional. In other words, just because a banks has $100 million in cash in its vault does not translate that the money could be easily stolen from the vault.

So, being prudent security – risk management professionals, we must have other way in which to assign a particular level of risk to a particular vulnerability that fully considers multiple (known) risk factors, not just one, or absent the possibility multiple risks could materialize in some manner of sequence and cascade.  Such added (risk-threat-vulnerability) complexities should prompt practitioners to re-visit qualitative risk ratings.

One reason is because many companies, organizations, and institutions learn there is a necessity to have multiple, perhaps three to five qualitative risk levels which may be addressed in relatively simple, but in my view, ambiguous terms like low, medium and high.

Sources for quantitative and qualitative data…

Based on my own experiences, I, and many other security – risk management professionals information and insight related to quantifying probabilities for risk-threat materialization is acquired from such sources (a.) penetration tests, and (b.) vulnerability scanners.

Generally, these sources produce good and relevant information, but it’s important to acknowledge that it may be from delivering the necessary complete risk-threat-vulnerability picture because either can, and frequently does change rapidly and routinely. Consequently, in addition to conventional risk-threat-vulnerability assessments, each must be routinely monitored for the inevitable changes. A critical part of which is internal, that is information about the activities of legitimate and authorized users of the IT systems, i.e., such things as where do they go, what do they do, what do they click on, etc.

Welcome inspiration for this post is gratefully attributed to Stephen Sims of the Sans Institute  Other Related Articles in Audit and Governance